两个故事告诉你风险与收益有时并不对等
大家都知道钱是可以生钱的,而想要钱生钱,只有一个办法,那就是投资。但投资又有风险,财务理论告诉我们,风险越大,收益越大。那么,在现实生活中,真是这样吗?先来看看下面这个虚拟的情景吧。
一个房间里装满了黄金,同时还有一颗定时炸弹。突然,门外同时冲进去3个人,进屋各装了一袋黄金后又同时跑出来。3个人所承担的风险是一样的吗?先来看看这3个人事后的回答。第一个人说,“什么?里面还有炸弹?!”第二个人说:“我装黄金时非常害怕,浑身颤抖。”第三个人说:“我知道炸弹什么时候爆炸。”显然,第三个人的风险是最小的。
虽说上面的假设有些夸张,但在现实生活中,类似的情形却比比皆是。对于第一种人而言,正所谓无知者无畏,浑然不觉巨大的风险。而真正的投资,则应该是第三种情形,能够对未来作出准确预测,将风险降到最低。
有这样一句话,这个钱只有“我”赚得,别人赚不得。为什么这个钱别人赚不得呢?就是因为别人来赚这个钱的风险特别大,而“我”赚这个钱则风险较低。
再来看一个小故事。有一家做空气净化器的企业,设备和产品都有了,只差销售。行业报告也预测当年空气净化器肯定热卖。这家企业为了促进销售,去找银行贷款用于做广告。银行问,你有资产作抵押没?企业说,我的厂房是租的,设备已经抵押过一次了,贷款的钱用来买原材料生产空气净化器了,没有其他可供抵押的资产。这种情形下,银行会贷款吗?银行觉得风险太大,放弃了对该企业的贷款。因为银行不能判断企业做广告后会取得怎样的效果,也不清楚该企业的空气净化器会不会热卖。
一个月后,这家企业的空气净化器产品在某电器连锁卖场上热卖起来。原来,这个电器连锁零售公司并购了上述企业。某电器连锁零售公司更熟悉家电领域,通过行业分析得出空气净化器肯定热卖,其本身又有销售渠道,产品质量没问题,只需加个柜台,直接就能卖,连广告费都省了。对于企业产品未来销售上的风险,某电器连锁零售公司就比银行小很多。所以,他们能赚这个钱,而银行就赚不了。
所以说,风险越大、收益越大只是一个理论,这个理论的实现需要一个前提,那就是每个人接触的信息一样,对风险的把控能力也一样。
正好比经济学理论中市场的有效性,市场能对资源进行最优配置,但前提是这个市场没有垄断,是一个完全竞争的市场。理论是有用的,但照搬理论却是错误的。很多人幻想一夜暴富,以为富贵险中求,这已有太多失败的案例。
真正的投资并非以高风险达到高收益,而是用比别人更小的风险达到更理想的收益。能够如此,需要比别人更专业、掌握更多信息,更用心、更脚踏实地去做事。
文章来源: 第一财经
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